Pierre Lindh: prediction markets still trade like sports betting, not hedges

Pierre Lindh, founder of the NEXTPredict prediction markets conference, said on Decrypt's FOMO Hour on 20 October 2026 that customers treat prediction markets much like a sportsbook rather than as a hedging tool. He put the sports share of liquidity at around 90%, and said he thinks the shift to hedging will come after a Supreme Court case clarifies the legal side.

The argument

Lindh was blunt about where the money sits today: "the current situation is that the truth is that like 90% of liquidity is coming from sports, right?" (from 40:24). He tied the move toward hedging to legal clarity rather than to organic demand: "I think that ultimately is gonna come down after a Supreme Court case when the legal side is a little bit more clarified and the big institutional capital feel more comfortable to take this space in" (from 40:57).

To show how far betting flows can drift from forecasts, Lindh relayed what a political odds-setter at the betting operator Smarkets had told him about 2020: polls favoured Biden, but "something like 80% or 85% of all volume was on Trump in sports betting world at that time" (from 48:57). He said that left bookmakers exposed: "if Trump would have won that election in 2020, it would have been an absolute disaster for like the online sports betting industry because there was so much overlay on Trump" (from 48:57).

What it rests on

Lindh's 90% matches one platform better than the category. In the week of 5 to 11 January 2026, sports made up 91.1% of Kalshi's volume but 39.9% of Polymarket's. That was a week of NFL wildcard games and college football playoffs, so the share moves with the sports calendar.

The Supreme Court case is real, though Lindh did not name it. On 2 September 2026 New Jersey petitioned the Supreme Court to overturn an April 2026 Third Circuit ruling that federal law shields Kalshi's sports-event contracts from state gaming law. The petition points to "a direct, acknowledged, and irreconcilable split between the Third and Ninth Circuits": on 28 August the Ninth Circuit, in Nevada's case, found the contracts were gambling rather than federally regulated swaps.

The 2020 figures are secondhand. Betting markets did favour Biden that autumn, and in late October one offshore sportsbook, BetOnline, said just over 70% of the money wagered on the race was on Trump. That is the lopsidedness Lindh described, though below the 80% to 85% he relayed, and it is one book rather than the industry.

Where it was discussed

• The Decrypt Daily: Oil Higher & Crypto Falls, JPM's BTC Call & Papertrade Controversy, 20 October 2026, from 40:24